Energy transitions, which can be described as structural shifts in the way a society produces and consumes energy, are nothing new. The world has experienced many such shifts, going back to the times when humans discovered fire. Later transitions involved the harnessing of mechanical energy by animal husbandry and the mastery of the power of hydrocarbons during the Industrial Revolution.
We are in the midst of another such transition, from fossil fuels to clean energy, and this one stands out. While the previous transitions unfolded over hundreds of years, the one we are witnessing right now will play out relatively quickly—within a decade or two. Humanity will need to collaborate to make this massive transition happen, driven by the urgent need to address climate change.
While this comes in the backdrop of an increasingly uncertain and volatile world, this urgent and massive energy transition presents an unlikely opportunity for India. The country has never come out of an energy transition better off (for example, the transition that triggered the Industrial Revolution). Can it, this time? To elaborate: can India emerge from this energy transition from being a large importer to a net exporter of energy?
India’s position in the energy market can be understood by a simple example. As one of the fastest-growing consumer markets, India is a destination for container ships and vessels, transporting goods from all corners of the world. And so, thousands of port calls are made by global shipping lines to Indian ports every year (in 2024, this number was 65,400). If these ships were also to use our ports to bunker and load fuel, India can earn $20-30 billion additionally every year.
It’s a missed opportunity now, as India’s infrastructure is inadequate and the country is also a net importer of crude oil. So, even when they are India-bound, most shipping lines purchase fuel from the Middle East or Singapore.
How can energy transition change India’s position? Let’s continue with the shipping example. As part of its climate goals, the International Maritime Organization, a UN agency, has announced its commitment toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. The immediate target is at least a 20% cut by 2030. And so, there is an urgency in the shipping industry to transition to more sustainable fuels. E-methanol is seen as a promising contender; commercial scale plants for this fuel are already coming up.
E-methanol is produced using green hydrogen and biogenic sources (originating from living organisms or biological processes) of carbon-dioxide. India is well-positioned to become a preferred supplier of this fuel, given its structural advantages in green hydrogen production, including low renewable energy costs and low labour costs, as well as ample sources of biogenic carbon dioxide.
A recent World Economic Forum article cited forecasts to suggest that “e-methanol capacity could expand by more than 20% annually over the coming decade, propelled by policy mandates, improving technologies, and rising demand from the shipping and chemical industries.”
Of course, India’s success in this transition is by no means guaranteed. In order to capitalize on this opportunity, India needs to do a slew of things, from creating port infrastructure that can afford the right draft and bunkering infrastructure required by large container ships and building a network of cost-effective domestic suppliers of e-methanol, to ensuring a well-structured marketing outreach effort.
This requires a coordinated approach that cannot be orchestrated by any individual corporate or entity, but requires collaboration across many ministries like the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, and Ministry of Power, States where production of global green fuels can be incentivised and aided, and the ecosystem of renewable producers and developers.
At stake is an e-methanol market that’s going to exceed $11 billion by 2030, from nearly $2.6 billion in 2025, as per recent research. As shipping adopts sustainability goals, the global green bunkering (the process of refueling ships) market is expected to be as large as $60 billion by 2030, with e-methanol having a significant share.
But India will have to contend with competition. Just recently, Singapore invited interest from green fuel producers, shipping lines, and infrastructure producers for this very opportunity.
The time to act is now. And as we have seen in previous energy transitions, the first mover wins, and the winner takes it all.
