The world’s largest emitter and energy consumer, China has for the first time set absolute emission reduction targets, and set targets covering all greenhouse gases and all sectors. While doing so, China became one of the first emerging countries to set medium-term absolute emission targets.
Xi Jinping announced China’s new climate targets personally, a positive gesture, and additional sectoral targets explicitly named solar, wind and EVs as key solutions to meet the emission commitment. The targets make it clear that these clean energy technologies are at the heart of China’s energy strategy.
This announcement by Xi is obviously a much-needed counterweight to the Trump administration extolling the virtues of polluting fossil fuels, particularly those imported from the U.S.
Domestic contradictions
At the same time, the targets reflect China’s domestic contradictions. The target for solar and wind capacity is 3,600 GW by 2035. The absolute scale of the targeted clean energy expansion is massive — compare the target with India’s 500 GW by 2030, itself a strong and ambitious number. Yet, China’s clean energy sector is already on track to meet the target well before 2035 if current trends continue.
In fact, reaching “only” 3,600 GW by 2035 would mean a sharp slowdown of recent trends. Meeting the target requires adding less than 200 GW of solar and wind per year, vs. 360 GW added in 2024 and more expected this year. Therefore, the target is likely to be exceeded dramatically.
Similarly, the headline emission target is to reduce economy wide net greenhouse gas emissions by just 7–10% from peak levels, while noting that China will strive to do more. This target falls far short of what would be required to align with the Paris Agreement — an emission reduction of at least 30% from 2024 levels.
Most importantly, it falls well short of what the country can achieve based on current clean energy trends, policies and targets.
Ambiguity over emission peak
Setting the target from “peak levels” rather than based on a specific base year, similarly, reflects disagreement about whether emissions have peaked already. China’s fossil CO2 emissions have been falling since early 2024, as growth in clean power generation has outpaced energy demand.
The solar, wind and other non-fossil power generation capacity added in 2024 alone will generate 580 TWh per year of electricity, more than the annual electricity consumption of e.g. Germany or France. Most importantly, it is enough to cover electricity demand growth up to 6%, exceeding the average of 5% per year. 2025 is expected to top last year’s record clean energy additions by a wide margin. It’s therefore clear that China has the ability to peak and decline emissions immediately.
Yet, policymakers decided to leave the door open to a period of emission increases before China’s commitment to peak emissions before 2030, at the latest, kicks in. This undefined peak level risks creating a counter-productive incentive for firms and local governments to increase emission levels in the short term.
The long shadow of coal
This ambiguity is rooted in China’s coal policy. In response to the fuel and power shortages of 2020–22, China massively expanded domestic coal mining and coal power capacity.
The fundamental dilemma is clear: China cannot sustain the simultaneous rapid growth of both its clean energy sector and its coal industry. At some point, one must give way. The current targets suggest that Beijing has not yet resolved this contradiction, reluctant to face the economic consequences of slowing down clean energy, or the strong vested interests backing coal.
Overachievement Likely, But Not Guaranteed
Current clean energy trends could cut China’s emissions by at least 30% by 2035 compared to 2023. Given the momentum of renewables, there is a good chance that the new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) will be substantially overachieved and later upgraded.
Thus, the current targets should be seen as a floor, not a ceiling, for China’s emissions trajectory. The gap between what China has pledged and what it is capable of achieving is large—and will shape the global climate outlook over the coming decade.
Global Implications
Despite the shortcomings, China’s new climate pledge marks an important step forward. By adopting absolute emission reduction targets across all sectors and gases, China is signalling to the world that it intends to play a more defined role in shaping the global transition.
In particular, there is no doubt about China’s determination to develop the fundamental technologies of the age of clean electricity—solar, wind, electric vehicles and decarbonized industrial processes based on clean electricity—and to export them to the world. Peaking the country’s own emissions, whether it happens now or in a few years, will likely put China in a position to be a lot more proactive in promoting the clean energy transition globally as well.
However, the modesty of the targets—relative to both the country’s potential and the Paris goals—reveals a strategic caution rooted in domestic political and economic constraints.
The real impact on the world will depend less on the formal target numbers and more on China’s actual energy transition on the ground. If current clean energy trends continue, China could drive down global emissions faster than its pledge implies, reshaping energy markets, lowering clean technology costs, and exerting competitive pressure on other major emitters.
China’s emission peak puts more of a spotlight on India, as the second-largest source of global emissions growth over the past decade. Despite having a different starting point with much lower emissions per capita, India is in a position to peak power sector emissions before 2030, due to clean energy growth that is already in the pipeline, and has made strong progress in building up manufacturing of clean energy technologies.
The expectation will be for India to clarify its own peaking timeline, possibly starting with the power sector, and strengthening policies and targets in other sectors such as transportation and industry where emissions are still growing but electrification can cut them effectively once the clean electricity supply is in place.
