India’s ambitious plan to install 100 gigawatts (GW) of solar energy by 2030 is a cornerstone of its strategy to combat climate change. With solar energy at the heart of its vision, India aims to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels while boosting its clean energy capacity. However, a recent study published in Environmental Research Letters raises concerns about the future efficacy of solar photovoltaics (SPV), suggesting that climate change and rising pollution may hinder the country’s solar ambitions.

Researchers from the Centre for Atmospheric Sciences at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi conducted the study, using radiation data from global climate models in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This project incorporates various emissions scenarios to predict future climate conditions. By analyzing the period from 1985 to 2014 as a baseline, the team aimed to forecast how SPV performance would change between 2041 and 2050.

The study paints a sobering picture: under the predicted climate and pollution scenarios, the efficacy of solar power generation could decline by 3.3% by the middle of the century. This decrease is expected to result in the loss of between 600 and 840 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of electricity annually, based on current solar power production levels. While these figures might seem modest at first glance, they represent a significant setback for a nation that plans to rely heavily on solar energy to meet its future energy needs.

The performance of solar panels depends on a variety of factors, including the amount of solar radiation available, the local temperature, surface winds, and humidity. As a result, ambient environmental conditions play a crucial role in determining how effectively solar panels can convert sunlight into energy. In its analysis, the study considered two different future scenarios: one where there are moderate efforts to curb both air pollution and climate change, and another where air pollution is strongly controlled, but climate change remains largely unaddressed.

The findings indicate that solar power generation will be more severely impacted in the first scenario, which involves moderate action on both pollution and climate change. This is because increased pollution levels and climate change will exacerbate the challenges faced by solar energy systems. In contrast, the second scenario, despite weaker climate action, sees greater success in reducing air pollution, which somewhat mitigates the expected performance losses.

The researchers also examined the effect of temperature on solar panels. In India, solar cells typically perform best when the temperature does not exceed 45°C. However, the study predicts that as climate change continues, temperatures will rise, pushing solar cells beyond their optimal operating range more frequently. From 1985 to 2014, average daily maximum cell temperatures in India ranged from 15°C to 50°C. Under moderate efforts to reduce pollution and address climate change, cell temperatures are expected to exceed 45°C for 18 ± 5 days per year. In a scenario with strong pollution control but weak climate action, this could rise to 26 ± 3 days annually.

Higher temperatures, combined with an increase in aerosol concentrations (tiny particles in the air that come from sources like dust, pollution, and smoke), could significantly reduce the efficiency of solar panels. Aerosols block sunlight and scatter it, reducing the amount of solar radiation reaching the panels. The study predicts that most regions in India will experience an increase in aerosol concentrations, except for the northwest Thar Desert, where the role of clouds is expected to be more significant despite high dust levels.

The performance losses due to these combined factors will not be uniform across the country. The study finds that the eastern power grid, particularly the Indo-Gangetic Plain, is projected to experience the most significant decline in solar potential under moderate pollution and climate control efforts, with a decrease of 5.1%. Other regions, including the northern, northeastern, and southern grids, will also face losses, though these are expected to be somewhat smaller (−3.4%, −3%, and −2.3%, respectively).

In the second scenario, where air pollution is strongly controlled but climate change is not mitigated as aggressively, the western grid is predicted to suffer the largest drop in solar potential (−2.7%). This is followed by the northern grid (−2.4%), the eastern grid (−2.2%), and the northeastern grid, which experiences the smallest decrease at −1.1%.

The study emphasizes the importance of taking proactive measures to address both air pollution and climate change if India is to fully realize its solar energy potential. Without significant reductions in pollution and global temperature rise, the nation may face considerable setbacks in its efforts to transition to renewable energy.

“Rapid action to combat both air pollution and climate change is crucial for ensuring that India’s solar ambitions are not undermined,” the researchers conclude. As India pushes forward with its renewable energy goals, the study highlights the need to consider the future impacts of climate change and pollution on solar power efficiency. By addressing these challenges, India can better ensure that its solar energy strategy remains effective and sustainable in the long term.