COP30 being held in Belém, Brazil—deep within the Amazon rainforest— carries symbolic weight and substantive urgency that few climate summits before it has commanded. As the world marks a decade since the Paris Agreement, COP30 stands as both a reckoning point and a launch pad for the final stretch toward 2030 climate targets.
The overarching expectation centres on transformation: moving beyond pledges to tangible implementation. After years of announcements and commitments that have yielded mixed results, delegates converging on Belém understand that this conference must deliver real-world action. The Paris Agreement’s foundational vision of limiting global warming to 1.5°Celsius has begun slipping away, and the gap between climate promises and climate outcomes grows wider each year.
The Finance Question That Dominates
At the heart of COP30 lies a fundamental tension: who pays, how much, and what guarantees exist that climate finance actually reaches those most affected. Developed nations pledged $100 billion annually under the Paris Agreement, yet delivering on this commitment has proven fractious. COP30 must establish mechanisms for scaling climate finance dramatically—estimates suggest $6.3 to 6.7 trillion annually by 2030 globally to adequately address energy transitions, adaptation, and restoration. Brazil’s presidency has placed climate finance among its five priorities, emphasising concessional financing, multilateral bank reforms, and private sector mobilisation.
Carbon Markets Come of Age
Another critical expectation concerns carbon markets and Article 6 mechanisms (Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs), which promise to unlock both funding and accountability. Significant progress emerged from COP29 in resolving long-disputed carbon trading rules, but full operationalisation remains incomplete. COP30 must accelerate these markets’ maturity, particularly through Article 6.2 and 6.4 mechanisms, potentially fuelling half of global carbon credit demand through 2040.
The Indian Perspective: Balancing Ambition and Equity
India enters COP30 from a position of climate leadership, having updated its Nationally Determined Contributions in 2022 with enhanced targets: a 45% reduction in emissions intensity of GDP by 2030 (increased from the prior 33-35% target) and 50% cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil sources. The country has emerged among the G20’s most progressive climate performers, consistently ranking in the top 10 on global climate indices.
India’s delegation, led by Union Minister Bhupender Yadav, has articulated clear priorities for Belém. Most significantly, India champions COP30 as “the COP of Adaptation”, emphasising that developing nations require intensified financing flows specifically directed toward building resilience. This framing reflects India’s dual reality: substantial development imperatives coupled with acute climate vulnerability affecting billions of people.
India’s expectations encompass robust carbon market participation; analysts project India’s carbon market could unlock a $200 billion opportunity by 2030 and accelerated technology transfer from developed to developing economies. The country seeks to position multilateralism and equity as conference cornerstones, ensuring that global climate solutions don’t merely reflect developed-world perspectives but incorporate the lived experiences of vulnerable populations.
The Belém Test
COP30 will ultimately be judged on whether it transforms rhetoric into mechanisms, pledges into resources, and targets into trajectories that genuinely redirect our warming planet. For India and developing nations, this conference represents perhaps the last genuine opportunity to embed equity into the climate regime before the 2030 watershed.
Amit Banka is Founder & CEO of WeNaturalists.
