Bengaluru-based Azim Premji University unveiled a new climate data set that paints a stark picture of India’s future temperature trends, offering a detailed look at how various regions of the country are likely to be affected by rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns.

One of the most striking findings of the report is that India’s average summer maximum temperature is expected to rise by 1.5°C by 2043, under a “middle of the road” emission scenario. This scenario assumes moderate efforts to reduce emissions and adapt to climate change. However, under a more extreme “fossil-fueled development” scenario—where society continues to heavily rely on fossil fuels—the same increase in summer temperature is projected to occur a full two years earlier, by 2041.

The data also predicts a significant increase in the average annual maximum temperature across India. Under the middle-of-the-road scenario, this increase will be 1.5°C by 2057. But in the fossil-fueled scenario, the temperature rise will occur a decade earlier, in 2047. These findings suggest that even a moderate emissions pathway will still lead to substantial warming, while a continuation of fossil-fuel-dependent growth will expedite and intensify the impacts.

The climate data set also includes projections for specific regions. For instance, under a low-emission scenario, 196 districts in India will experience a summer maximum temperature increase of at least one degree Celsius. Seventy of these districts will see similar increases in annual maximum temperatures. Leh, in the northernmost part of India, is expected to see the highest temperature rise, with an increase of 1.6°C in both summer and annual maximum temperatures.

Winter temperatures are also projected to rise significantly, with 139 districts expected to experience an increase in winter minimum temperatures of 1.5°C or more. A larger number, 611 districts, will see a 1°C or greater increase in winter temperatures.

Under a high-emission scenario, the projections are even more alarming. Two hundred forty-nine districts will experience an annual maximum temperature increase of at least one degree Celsius, and 16 districts—mainly in the Himalayan states—could see increases of 1.5°C or more. Summer temperatures are also expected to rise sharply, with 517 districts projected to experience a summer maximum temperature increase of at least one degree Celsius. Seventeen of these districts are expected to see increases of 1.5°C or more, with Leh again standing out with the highest projected rise of 1.7°C.

The report also highlights the regional variations in temperature changes, with some districts in the northeast and Himalayan states experiencing the most extreme increases. In particular, the winter minimum temperature is projected to rise by 1.5°C or more in 162 districts, with the highest increase predicted for Anjaw district in Arunachal Pradesh, where the winter minimum temperature could rise by as much as 2.2°C.

The projections aren’t limited to temperature alone. The report also examines changes in precipitation patterns from 2021 to 2040. It finds that the western part of India, including states like Gujarat and Rajasthan, will experience a significant increase in precipitation, with changes ranging from 20% to 40% under the moderate emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), and from 20% to 50% under the high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5).

This shift in precipitation is particularly concerning for human health. The report notes that under both emissions scenarios, 24 to 25 districts—spread across the coastal states and the eastern Himalayas—will experience summer wet bulb temperatures exceeding 31°C. Wet bulb temperature, which combines temperature and humidity, is a critical factor in determining human survivability. Such extreme conditions could pose serious threats to public health, especially in densely populated areas.

The report, titled Climate Change Projections for India (2021-40), uses data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to model future climate scenarios. It provides a sobering view of what India could face in the coming decades, emphasising the urgent need for both mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce emissions and build resilience against the inevitable impacts of climate change.