The rapid adoption of clean energy technologies presents substantial opportunities for nations aiming to manufacture and trade in these sectors, but it also requires governments to navigate difficult choices involving “tensions and trade-offs” in industrial and trade policies, according to a new report from the IEA.

Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 (ETP-2024), the latest edition of the IEA’s leading technology publication, explores the future of six key mass-manufactured clean energy technologies: solar PV, wind turbines, electric cars, batteries, electrolysers, and heat pumps. Under current policy settings, the global market for these technologies is expected to grow from $700 billion in 2023 to over $2 trillion by 2035—almost matching the recent value of the global crude oil market. Trade in these technologies is also projected to surge, more than tripling within a decade to $575 billion, which would be over 50% higher than today’s global natural gas trade.

The report provides a first-of-its-kind analytical framework to assist policymakers in navigating the evolving clean energy manufacturing and trade landscape. Leveraging a new, detailed dataset and quantitative modelling based on existing policies, ETP-2024 outlines the current status and projected evolution of clean energy manufacturing and trade. It highlights how countries at varying stages of development can capture the advantages of the growing energy economy while advancing secure, cost-effective clean energy transitions.

“The market for clean technologies is set to multiply in value in the coming decade, increasingly catching up with the markets for fossil fuels. As countries seek to define their role in the new energy economy, three vital policy areas – energy, industry and trade – are becoming more and more interlinked. While this leaves governments with tough and complicated decisions ahead, this groundbreaking new IEA report provides a strong, data-driven foundation for their decisions,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “Clean energy transitions present a major economic opportunity, as we have shown, and countries are rightly seeking to capitalise on that. However, governments should strive to develop measures that also foster continued competition, innovation and cost reductions, as well as progress towards their energy and climate goals.”

This growth in the global clean technology market has triggered a record wave of investment in clean tech manufacturing, as countries seek to enhance energy security, sustain economic competitiveness, and reduce emissions. While the United States, European Union, and India are making substantial strides, much of this investment is concentrated in China, which remains the leading global manufacturer. Based on current policies, China’s clean technology exports are projected to surpass $340 billion by 2035, comparable to this year’s expected oil export revenue of Saudi Arabia and the UAE combined.

At present, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa account for less than 5% of clean technology production by value. Nonetheless, ETP-2024 stresses that the new clean energy economy offers opportunities for countries at all stages of development. The report assesses these prospects on a country-by-country basis across more than 60 indicators, including business climate, infrastructure, resource availability, and domestic market size.

Beyond mining and processing critical minerals, developing economies could leverage competitive advantages to move up the value chain. For instance, Southeast Asia may become a cost-effective region for producing solar polysilicon and wafers in the next decade. Latin America, especially Brazil, has potential to expand wind turbine production for export across the Americas. North Africa could evolve into an EV manufacturing hub, and sub-Saharan African nations could use low-emission hydrogen to produce iron.

 “Growth in the manufacturing and trade of clean energy technologies should be for the benefit of many economies, not just a few,” Dr Birol said. “This report shows that countries in Southeast Asia, Latin America, Africa and beyond and have strong potential to play important roles in the new energy economy. And it finds that with sound strategic partnerships, increased investment and greater efforts to bring down high financing costs, they can achieve this potential.”

The report also examines the global impacts of expanding trade in clean energy technology. One key benefit is enhanced energy resilience. Unlike fossil fuels, which need constant replenishment, importing clean technologies creates a durable stock of energy-generating equipment. For example, a single shipment of solar PV modules could ultimately supply as much electricity as the natural gas from over 50 large LNG tankers or the coal from more than 100 bulk carriers.

However, new energy security considerations are emerging. Today, about half of all maritime trade in clean energy technology passes through the Strait of Malacca, linking the Indian and Pacific Oceans, compared to around 20% of fossil fuel trade through the Strait of Hormuz. The report’s online trade explorer tool provides further insights into how clean energy trade might evolve in the years to come.