Despite net-zero goals, coal remains central to India’s energy strategy
Although India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, coal will continue to play a significant role in its energy strategy for the foreseeable future, according to IEA
A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that India is set to experience the highest growth in energy demand globally over the next decade, driven by its large population and rising demand across all sectors. Following its population surpassing China’s in 2023, India is now the most populous country, even as its fertility rate drops below replacement levels.
The IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2024 report indicates that coal will remain a crucial component of India’s energy mix for several decades. The country is projected to add around 60 gigawatts of new coal-fired power capacity by 2030, despite the retirement of some older coal plants. Coal-based electricity generation is expected to increase by over 15%, continuing to supply approximately 40% of energy for key industries such as steel, cement, and manufacturing in 2023. By 2035, coal consumption in these industries is forecasted to rise by 50%.
The report highlights significant growth in India’s transportation and construction sectors, with projections of over 12,000 new cars hitting the roads daily until 2035 and annual built space increasing by more than 1 billion square meters—larger than the entire built space of South Africa today. India’s iron and steel production is expected to surge by 70%, cement output by nearly 55%, and the number of air conditioners is likely to increase more than fourfold, with electricity demand from air conditioning anticipated to surpass Mexico’s total expected electricity consumption by 2035.
Overall, India’s total energy demand is projected to rise by nearly 35%, and its electricity generation capacity is likely to triple to 1,400 gigawatts by 2035. Although India has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, coal will continue to play a significant role in its energy strategy for the foreseeable future. In 2023-24, the share of coal-fired power generation rose to 75%, up from 71% in 2019-20. While coal consumption has declined in Europe and the U.S., it increased by 8% in India and 5% in China in 2023, underscoring the ongoing reliance on coal in these regions.
