Despite the turbulent backdrop of geopolitical strife, conflict, and a shifting global power structure, COP29 ended with a historic agreement. The 2024 UN Climate Talks were expected to be divisive and fraught, and they delivered on both counts. Yet, against all odds, a deal was struck—a deal that could be a defining moment in the fight against climate change.

The summit, held in Baku, Azerbaijan, marked a crossroads in global climate diplomacy, and it came at a time when the world was already reeling from multiple crises. 2024 was officially recorded as the hottest year on record, and with the re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States—still the world’s largest fossil fuel producer—many feared the worst for meaningful climate action. In this already challenging environment, fossil fuel-driven economies like Saudi Arabia attempted to fracture the international consensus on climate change, while rich nations like the U.S. and Japan sought to limit the financial commitments to developing countries already bearing the brunt of climate devastation.

The negotiations were chaotic, with tensions running high. Rich countries’ position was perceived as severely short-changing the world’s poorest nations, and the trust between developed and developing nations—already strained by the COVID pandemic and recent wars—was at an all-time low. But amid these fractures, a compromise emerged. Countries, particularly from the Global South, came together with allies from the North to craft a bold vision for global financial realignment to confront climate change, setting an ambitious target of raising $1.3 trillion annually by 2035.

For the first time, major Southern economies—including China and India—were included in the financial framework, committing to voluntary contributions to global climate action. While the overall financial figures remained controversial, a first downpayment was agreed: $300 billion a year by 2035. This was not a monumental leap in funding, but it represented a long-term commitment to partnership, critical for maintaining momentum toward meeting global climate goals.

Despite concerted efforts by Saudi Arabia to roll back progress, the final hours of the conference saw breakthroughs. The negotiators found a path forward, acknowledging the necessity for financial support, particularly for the most vulnerable nations. G20 leaders, alongside vulnerable countries, reaffirmed their commitment to multilateralism, agreeing on a plan that would make funding available to help the hardest-hit regions address the climate crisis.

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is now well positioned to lead COP30 in 2025, which many hope will be the “turnaround COP.” The world is in desperate need of a shift: extreme weather events linked to climate change have killed over half a million people in the last two decades, and the economic toll of these disasters now amounts to $227 billion annually. With emissions still rising, the urgency for more aggressive action is palpable.

The final outcomes of COP29 suggest that the global financial system is shifting in the right direction. There were promising signs from both developed and developing nations. The UK and Brazil put forward robust national climate plans, while the G20 collectively acknowledged the need to reform international financial institutions and tax polluters in order to unlock more resources for climate action. Multilateral development banks (MDBs) reported that reforms could lead to $120 billion a year in climate financing for low and middle-income countries by 2030, including $42 billion for adaptation.

Perhaps most telling is the growing momentum around clean energy. Global investments in renewable energy have now surpassed those in fossil fuels, with solar power alone outpacing all other forms of generation combined. In many countries, solar and onshore wind are already more cost-competitive than fossil fuels, and China has ramped up its investment in clean energy technologies by 40% over the past year.

But not everyone was satisfied with the deal. The fossil fuel lobby, represented by over 1,700 lobbyists, including the CEOs of major oil companies like Aramco, BP, and Total Energies, pushed back against climate progress. They attempted to derail the negotiations, costing precious time and creating obstacles to faster climate action. Their efforts failed at COP29, but the inertia they create still lingers, and it will be a challenge for future negotiations.

One of the more contentious issues was finance, with a core goal set at $300 billion a year by 2035, and an overarching target of $1.3 trillion. However, the text included provisions for South-South cooperation and a focus on adaptation funding, with a clear emphasis on grant-based financing over loans for the most vulnerable countries. It also acknowledged gaps in loss and damage financing, but did not make firm commitments on how these gaps would be addressed. The review process will continue through the Baku-to-Belem roadmap, with assessments due in 2026 and 2027, and a major review in 2030.

The mitigation texts, largely shaped by the UAE’s COP28 Consensus, proved a sticking point, particularly around fossil fuel phase-outs. Saudi Arabia, in particular, attempted to stall progress on key issues, but these discussions will continue at future meetings in Bonn and Belem. The real test will come when countries submit their national climate plans (NDCs) by 2025, and the pressure will be on the world’s largest emitters to drastically reduce their carbon footprints.

The final plenary saw a dramatic moment when India raised objections to the deal. Chandni Raina, an adviser in India’s Department of Economic Affairs, called the document an “optical illusion” and questioned its ability to address the scale of the climate crisis. India’s intervention highlighted the ongoing tensions between developed and developing nations, with many feeling that the deal did not go far enough in addressing the immediate needs of the most vulnerable countries.

Despite these objections, the final hours of COP29 saw negotiators move forward with an agreement that, while imperfect, pointed toward a more collaborative and ambitious future. The task now is to ensure that the promises made in Baku are followed through, and that the world continues to build on the hard-won progress of COP29 as it moves toward COP30 in Brazil.

As Lula prepares to host the next summit, the world’s eyes will be on Brazil to see if it can indeed deliver the “turnaround COP” that is so desperately needed.