India’s climate policies are already making a significant impact, with projections indicating that CO2 emissions could be reduced by nearly 4 billion tonnes between 2020 and 2030. This reduction is equivalent to 1.6 times the European Union’s CO2 emissions in 2023 and surpasses India’s COP26 commitment to cut emissions by 1 billion tonnes by 2030. The study, Impact of Select Climate Policies on India’s Emissions Pathway, shows that India’s policies, particularly in the power, transport, and residential sectors, have already saved 440 million tonnes of CO2 from 2015 to 2020, with the power sector leading the way due to its significant emissions share.

In the power sector, policies supporting renewable energy are expected to lead to a 24% decline in coal-based electricity generation by 2030, preventing the installation of 80 GW of coal plants that would have been needed to meet demand. By 2030, solar and wind power will comprise 26% of India’s energy mix, up from just 3% in 2015, with projections reaching 43% by 2050. This shift away from coal is essential to reducing India’s dependence on fossil fuels and is a key driver of emissions reductions.

Dr. Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of CEEW, emphasized India’s leadership, stating, “India has demonstrated formidable climate leadership… This has not only diversified our energy mix and doubled down on energy security, but also created new markets and significantly cut India’s carbon dioxide emissions.” However, he stressed that achieving net-zero by 2070 will require even bolder actions, including climate finance for developing countries like India.

The transport sector also stands to benefit from policy-driven growth in electric vehicles (EVs). The FAME schemes have laid the groundwork for EV adoption, with projections showing 19% of two-wheeler sales and 11% of four-wheeler sales could be electric by 2030. By 2050, EVs are expected to reduce the sector’s oil and gas demand by 55% relative to a no-policy scenario.

In the residential sector, initiatives like the UJALA programme—which has distributed over 367 million LED bulbs—are projected to reduce electricity use for lighting by 48% by 2030. However, the study notes that India’s rising demand for air conditioning could offset some gains in energy efficiency.

Dr. Vaibhav Chaturvedi, Senior Fellow at CEEW, underscored the need to scale up renewable energy investments and enhance energy efficiency across industries, transport, and buildings. Immediate steps include supporting the PM-EDRIVE scheme to accelerate EV adoption, which will further contribute to emission reductions.